Bosnia, back in the spotlight.

Today is supposed to mark the start of the trial of Radovan Karadzic, accused of 11 counts of genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity. Undoubtedly there will be twists and turns, Karadzic will be playing the International Criminal Court for all he is worth. He is unlikely to turn up, will refuse to recognise the courts jurisdiction, will claim he hasn't had enough time to prepare his defence and will be doing all in his power to discredit the court and drag the trial out indeterminably.

I will write a post at some point talking about the trial and how people feel about it here. It is, as you can imagine, a contentious issue. Some people passionately feel that the trial is needed; to establish what happened, to create a legally recognised truth that can't be twisted by every side to suit its own agendas. Others feel that it is important that those responsible for creating the events of the 1992-95 conflict are held to account, made to take responsibility for their actions. On the other hand there are some who would rather that the events of the war were placed firmly in the past, and who wonder if whether another trial highlighting Srebrenica and the siege of Sarajevo serves to keep Bosnia firmly orientated towards its conflict years, preventing them from looking towards the future. Of course there are also those who vehemently protest against the proceedings, claiming them to be unfair and illegitimate.

But the start of the trial, coming as it does as the various political Bosnian leaders are trying (or not trying so much) to establish how the country can move forward out of the political molasses pit that they seem to have found themselves in, will put Bosnia back onto the global news agenda. Whilst most people here think that the articles in The Telegraph and Time Magazine claiming that Bosnia is once again on the brink of war, to be an exaggeration of the situation and a strategic move by the internatinal community to put pressure upon the Bosnian politicians, there is definitely a sense that this is a crucial moment in post war Bosnia. Suddenly people who usually ignore the political shenanigans are talking about it. There are rumours about some people rearming themselves (but then again, there are always rumours about people rearming themselves).

These next couple of months will be interesting times for Bosnia. And now I am starting to understand why it is that the Chinese saying 'may you live in interesting times' is understood to be a curse.

Is everything falling apart?

Enough already. I've been reading some of what the commentators have to say about Bosnia following the Daily Telegraph's article saying that Bosnia 'on brink of new civil war'. It seems that everyone is saying that Bosnia is about to fall apart. As I type there are big high level talks going on in Sarajevo where very important people are trying to get the politicians to agree to some small constitutional reforms. These are apparently not going very well (Bosnia's crucial talks hit a snag) and the only thing that everyone agrees on is that they are not going to adopt the reforms that are being suggested. Good to know it is possible to have everyone agreeing on something. The Bosnian Muslim leaders are predicting a return to violence within the year if things continue as they are. The Foreign Affairs magazine agrees, with headlines that proclaiming The Death of Dayton (the peace agreement that ended the conflict in 1995).

None of this makes for good reading. But as I read it, I can't help but feel that I am reading about somewhere else. It just doesn't seem quite possible that this country that is on the brink of collapse is the same country as the one that I am living in. People are going about the day to day life without too much worry. They are used to the posturing of politicians and the international community and see it as being another episode of political bang drumming and chest beating, making themselves look strong and powerful, particularly against the bullying of the international community. There isn't any talk of people stock piling goods (which did happen when Kosovo declared independence as people genuinely were worried about what the effects would be here). In fact, no one seems to be paying that much attention to the politicians at all.

Day to day life is carrying on. People are still tending their gardens, going out for a drink in cafes, buying music and listening to concerts, watching the football, doing all that, well, normal stuff. Stuff that everyone in Europe does. They moan about the economy (which is a mess) and the bureaucracy (don't start me on it) and talk about how cold it is for the time of year. It just doesn't feel like a country on the verge of conflict. I agree with the one positive article that I have seen about Bosnia from the European Stability Initiative, who point out that whilst Bosnia is a long way from perfect it has made enormous strides over the last couple of months. It seems that this wave of pessimism about Bosnia is becoming self perpetuating.

I can't see how Bosnia will return to war. There is no appetite for it all amongst the general population, who fully know how damaging it can be. I can't see how Serbia or Croatia would have the inclination to back it. That is not to say that there won't be violence, I think a flare up somewhere is a possibility, but to spread to full on conflict, I really don't think it will happen.

But I am reminded of a coffee I had not so long ago with a man who had recently returned to his home close to the Serbian border. We were sitting by the Drina river, enjoying a long afternoons sunset, with people swimming and canoeing beside us and fisherman just a little further upstream. It was pleasant, warm and the atmosphere was happy. He was talking about the war in 1992. 'You have no idea.' he said 'One day we were sitting here with our neighbours, drinking coffee just like we are today. The next day we were at war. We had no idea it was coming.'

A depressing coffee

For once, a positive take on the situation in Bosnia. The Economist has an article from a couple of weeks back about how the old Yugoslavia is no longer a country but the countries that came from it are now developing a Yugosphere, where business and cultural aspects are binding the area back to a semblance of normality, despite their politicians.

The article is a couple of weeks old now, and must have been published when all the politicians were away on holiday because now they are back at work we are being treated to a few articles with headlines like 'Politicians "lead Bosnia to the verge of war"'. All kinds of the usual political shenanigans are going on with various political parties throwing all their toys out of the pram and behaving like, well, my children really.

Usually I come down on seeing the positive side of the situation in Bosnia. Despite what all those politicians are up to, I can see that in everyday life people are getting on with the business of living. They have coffee with each other. They create business together. They listen to the same sort of music and love to travel to Croatia or Serbia. They live together. To some extent they view with their politicians with a hint of exasperation, but also don't see much of a connection between the latest shenanigans in Sarajevo will affect their day to day lives.

This week though, I'm feeling more pessimistic about Bosnia's future having had the (mis)fortune to have had a coffee in the company of a die-hard nationalist. Whilst practically every other Bosnian I have met (whether Serb, Croat or Muslim) has been the most generous, kind hearted, well natured person, this man was odious. The bile he spewed was jaw dropping to listen to. The certainty in his own beliefs was frightening. The venom he had for people who were not like him was really frightening.

I have struggled to understand how it was that the war in Bosnia became so vicious and nasty. The people I've met have all been such unlikely characters to participate in such a thing. They were neighbours before the war, I couldn't understand how they got to the point that they did. How was it that they came to listen to their politicians and embark on such a lunacy?

Having met this man, I could suddenly see a glimpse of how it might have happened. He is not someone I would want to meet at a roadblock. He is not someone I would like to have negotiate with. He stands out to me as the exception in Bosnia, I have not met anyone quite like him before. Suddenly I understood that it wouldn't take so many of this type of man on each side to create a situation where things became nasty.

But the really frightening thing? The thing that really depressed me? He was in a position of influence and there were 5 or 6 18 year olds hanging off his every word.

BBC World Service Analysis: Bosnia's Future

The BBC World Service has just aired a good analysis on the situation in Bosnia at the moment. It's fairly short, just 10 minutes, and well worth a listen if you get the chance.

World Service: Bosnia's Future

Super Nanny lessons

As the parent of any toddler knows, there are a few golden rules that you (try to) follow.

The first is that if you make a threat then you must be able to carry it out. So, when you say to your adorable offspring in their least adorable state 'if you do that again then we won't be going to the playground' you must be able to not go to the playground if they continue to spit yogurt drink all over their brother. This punishment can often be as much a punishment for the parent as it is for the child, to not go to the playground will obviously entail a screaming tantruming child who wants to go out, is now corralled at home with a parent who now has to deal with the little angel and has to find something else to do to fill the afternoon. The key here is obviously to find a better punishment, but I'm drifting off point.

If you don't carry out your threat you lose all legitimacy and, in the words of the great Potty Mummy you are toast. The kids have you were they want you. They don't need to listen to what you say, they know you don't mean it.

So, us lowly mums have a lesson for the International Community present in Bosnia. When you say to the Bosnian Politicians, you are all very very naughty and you must do what I say or else, you need to have an 'or else' or the Bosnian politicians will consider that you, too, are toast. Or at least irrelevant and will laugh at you when you get all cross and huffy. Trust me, there is nothing worse than being laughed at when you are cross and huffy.

It isn't surprising then that the role of the International Community here is being questioned, with quite a few people pushing to close OHR. Without teeth, without the ability to do the 'or else' (or even have an idea of what the 'or else' will be) it doesn't appear to have a whole lot of relevency.

But, the political situation here is still ever so tense. The situation has not improved with yesterday's decision to allow Serbia, Macedonia and Montenegro visa free travel in the EU, but not Bosnia or Albania. As the Bosnian Croats mainly have Croatian passports (and visa free travel) and the Bosnian Serbs can legally obtain Serbian passports (and therefore are about to get visa free travel), the only group of people this is affecting is the Bosniaks (also known as Bosnian Muslims). There is a concern that isolating Europe's Islamic population in this way will lead to increased tension in the region (as detailed by the European Stability Initiatives report here). Some people here are questioning why it is that the victims of war crimes, such as Srebrenica, are to be denied visa free travel, while the perpetrators, by stint of their passports, will be able to travel freely (see the Balkan Insight article, but a few people I've spoken here have said the same thing). It should also be said that Serbia did meet the requirements laid out by the EU for visa free travel, and Bosnia has yet to do so, although the difference between the two countries is very slight indeed.

So, with an already tense political situation, decisions being made that will only make it even more so, it is important to think through what exactly an international presence here in Bosnia is designed to do. OHR (the international community organisation here in Bosnia) thinks of itself as stabilizers for kids learning to use a bicycle. Others say having the stabilizers stops the kids from learning how to balance. Either way, as all parents can tell you, if you want respect you must be prepared to be unpopular and carry through clearly defined threats. Otherwise you become an irrelevancy. In the decision of having an international community presence or not, the choice of having an irrelevent one is the least attractive of all.

Bosnian news

Well, blow me down with a feather. There I am complaining that Bosnia never makes the news in the UK and when I listen to the news on Radio 4 last night (you have to love radio over the internet, the inside of our house sounds just as it did before we left the English shores) the second story was about Bosnia. It seems that the head of the Bosnian Serb army during the conflict here, Ratko Mladic, has been caught on video apparently as recently as last year and this video was aired on Bosnian TV on Wednesday night. Mladic was indicted on various war crimes and genocide charges and has been on the run for the last decade (reportedly in Serbia and rumoured to have been protected by the Serb state until recently).

This being the Balkans, nothing is as straightforward as it first seems. The timing of the release of the video coincides with two things. First the Bosnian Serbs had a June 11th deadline of complying with international community ultimatums which they then proceeded to ignore (more on this from my post earlier this week) and I don't find the release of a video of one of their previous leaders suggesting that the international community are getting closer to finding him entirely coincidental. Second, many believe that it is to put pressure on the country Serbia who are, with the election of a more Western inclined Prime Minister, to shortly have discussions about their route to EU membership. The apprehension of Radovan Karadzic in Belgrade last year by the Serbs (complete with beard, top knot and new career as an alternative medicine practitioner) was probably orchestrated with one eye on their EU credentials.

Either way there is nothing that the Bosnians love more than a good conspiracy theory and everyone is talking about it. Whether they will catch him and whether the war crimes tribunals in The Hague will deliver effective justice is a totally different story

normal service will be briefly interrupted..

I can't write a blog about being in Bosnia without occasionally taking a moment to step outside of the mummy and expat mantle and writing a bit about the situation in Bosnia itself. I tried to set the context of the country in a post back in April (An Uncertain Future) and every now and then put links up to articles about the country in The Economist and other such venerable publications.

When I left the country for the UK 6 weeks ago, the political situation in Bosnia was tense. I kept up with the news, scanned the foreign pages for news of Bosnia and generally kept my ears open. I didn't hear a thing about the country so I figured it was back in its more usual state of tense political stalemate but everyone getting on with their lives just fine.

Back in Bosnia I caught up on what has been happening over the last 5 weeks. Turns out that quite a lot has been going on, none of which had been reported in the UK.

The Office of the High Representative (OHR) who are the International presence in Bosnia and are there to make sure that everyone is behaving themselves, sticking to terms of the peace agreement and generally trying to build up useful things like a stable and uncorrupt government have found themselves in deep conflict with the Bosnian Serbs. In a nutshell OHR is trying to realign some powers that the Bosnian Serb government currently has with the central Bosnian government. Anyway, the Bosnian Serbs are up in arms, threatening to declare independence from Bosnia and there is a lot of throwing toys out of prams, rattling the bars of their playpens and general tantrums worthy of a two year old. For a more grown up take on the actual situation Balkan Insight have a couple of articles worth a peek.

Declaring independence from Bosnia is the ultimate threat. This was what the Bosnian Serbs fought much of the war for, and a declaration of independence could well spark another conflict in the region. There are some who think that the whole mess in Bosnia has gone on for so long that independence for the Republika Srpska is the only way forward (the former US Ambassador William Montgomery writing in the New York Times for example). Others such as Marko Hoare suggest this is allowing the architects of ethnic cleansing to achieve their genocidal aims.

Anyway, the point of this post is not so much a lesson on the Bosnian political situation. More it is to say that I cannot believe that there is so little media coverage of the situation in the Western press. The situation here is tense, very tense. There is a very real possibility that the region could sink back into conflict, and no one is really paying attention. Bosnia is not in the depths of Africa or the mountains of Asia. It is European, it is in Europe. It is just east of Italy, it is north of Greece and is just south of Hungary. The Europeans are in charge of Bosnia (they run the councils that control OHR) and seem incapable of sorting out the situation. The Americans have more influence and clout (Vice President Biden came to speak at the Bosnian parliament and tried bashing a few heads together to try and start some form of cooperation between the different leaders) but see Bosnia as a European issue (for more on this have a look at this recent Economist article). Nobody seems to be getting anywhere, and the situation goes on and on to the huge detriment of the Bosnian people.

The politicians and the media are focused upon how to extract ourselves from the quagmire of Afghanistan and Iraq, and rightly so. But, by ignoring Bosnia today they are both failing to learn useful lessons which could help them. Furthermore, if I was a suppressed Iraqi insurgent, the lesson I'd be learning would be if I kept quiet for a couple of years and waited for the next crisis to crop up somewhere else, I'd be able to do pretty much whatever I wanted as no one would be looking.

Normal service with tales of small children and cultural misunderstandings will be resumed in the next post. Thank you for bearing with me.

An uncertain future

One of the things about writing a blog about living in Bosnia is that I'm aware of the need to every now and then set the context. UK and US bloggers don't need to write about the Credit Crunch, the recession or global economic meltdown, everyone knows more than they ever thought they would about that already. But, bar the Bosnians, most readers of this blog have no idea about Bosnia beyond that there was a pretty nasty war here a while back.

In general, that is more than enough needed to read the posts. I specifically want this blog to be about day to day living in Bosnia which really isn't that different from living elsewhere in Europe. However.....(and that is a big word). The political situation here is tense. Really tense. Occasionally it becomes a little less tense but the fundamental problems and issues remain. The UK and US media haven't really been reporting it, but I just read an article in The Economist from earlier this month: Bosnia's Future: A Tearing Sound, which finishes off saying that there is a remote but very real chance that the country could slip back into conflict, particularly if the politicians continue to play on the fears of the population. It also says that there is no appetite for war amoungst ordinary Bosnians, and that could not be more true.

I don't think the article was written following any particular incident. The situation has been tense here for a while (see earlier posts Getting Tenser and Letting Some Steam Out of the Pressure Cooker) and although the new EU representative who oversees Bosnia has arrived it does seem to be more of situation normal here, so fingers crossed the article was in response to a general kind of feeling rather than knowledge of anything specific.

We obviously worry, we are here with 2 small children and we do not want to find ourselves in the middle of a nasty situation. Despite the political wranglings, day to day life has not been affected. So all we can do is watch and hope that the politicians respect the wishes of the people and do not bring the prospect of a return to conflict any closer than it already is.

letting some steam out of the pressure cooker

The pressure cooker that is the Bosnian political world appears to have eased somewhat in recent days. The American Assistant Secretary in charge of the Balkans, Stuart Jones, met with the President of the RS (the Serb half of Bosnia) and following the meeting talks of splitting Bosnia in two appear to have stopped. Experienced followers of Bosnian politics have commented wryly that the Bosnian Serb leader, Dodik, is an experienced political operator so the majority are taking a 'we shall wait and see' attitude. The Bosnians, whilst enjoying a relaxation in the tensions, haven't missed that it is the Americans who have managed to provide a respite and the European Union who has control of OHR, and is therefore responsible for overseeing the country, seems to be without political will to act in Bosnia. More on this here). As an aside, the saga of the appointment of a new High Representative continues. Rumour has it that the Russians and Serbs opposed the appointment of a Brit to the post, and now an Austrian is in the running - see more here.

getter tenser

The accusation of a Euro 70million odd fraud against the Bosnian Serb leader has just added to an already very tense political situation in BiH. Turns out there are irregularities in the way in which the charge was bought about whereby all Bosnian Serb representatives were by-passed. In a country that loves conspiracy theories, this is turning into a humdinger. Everyone is nervously watching developments. More on this story from Balkan Insight here and about the conspiracy theories that are circulating here for those interested.

General Bosnian news

An article in last weeks Economist (click here) shows quite well the current situation with Bosnia (and other Balkan countries) when it comes to joining the EU. Everyone wants to join, even Serbia has elected a EU facing government. But political situations across the region has led to everyone getting a bit 'stuck' and are not being helped by the global economic situation, which is slowing investments and manufacturing.

Also, Chris Patten not in the running for the High Representative's job, but another Brit is the current front runner. According to general gossip Emyr Jones Parry will be confirmed in the role today. (see here). Good luck to him, he will surely need it. Lajcak, the previous holder of the role, compared the job to flogging a dead horse due to the lack of policial will within the EU to act against the Bosnian politicians.

And it looks as if the Bosnian politicians need a firm hand. This weekend saw an indication of how deeply corruption is embedded into Bosnian life. The Bosnian Serb leader, Milorad Dodik, and 10 others were accused over the weekend of embezzling something in the region of 74million Euros (see here). Just a mere 74 million. You could buy yourself a new car with that.

As the Economist says, the day to day life goes on without too much trouble masking some of the serious challenges that Bosnia still faces.

a tense political situation

Today is the first anniversary of Kosovo's independence. Kosovo, originally a part of Serbia and an enormous part of Serb history and folklore, was populated primarily by ethnic Albanians who didn't want to be a minority in the greater Serb state. Serbia does not recognise the Kosovan state and the atmosphere in the region is strained.

Kosovo doesn't border Bosnia but there are a number of ramifications. Bosnia is split into 2 entities, one of which, the Republika Srpska known as the RS, is primarily populated by Bosnian Serbs. Ultimately, the RS would like to gain independence of its own, creating a separate Bosnian Serb state. The Bosnian Serb politicians see similarities between Kosovo and the RS and continue to push for RS independence, most recently opening a representative office in the EU to the fury of other Bosnian politicians.

It is no surprise that the first anniversary of Kosovan independence should see the head of the Bosnian Serb state calling for greater independence and increased separation from the overall Bosnian state (see article here). It makes an already tense political situation worse, bringing about one of the worst political crises since the end of the war in 1995.

swimming, splashing and building

It may be winter in Tuzla, so swimming in the outdoor lakes is out (even for us hearty Brits), but that doesn't mean that there is no swimming at all. The Hotel Tuzla, a communist beast of a hotel if ever I saw one, has got a pool that really isn't bad at all. 25m, not too busy, not too chlorinated, it is a pool that you could do laps in no trouble at all (pictures of pool and associated bevy of beauties here - but a heads up for those surfing the Hotel Tuzla website, don't be fooled by pictures of lovely clay tennis courts - they are in Tuzla, but are not a part of the Hotel Tuzla complex).

We took the boys there on Sunday. Sadly, no laps for us, more standing in the shallow end getting cold while the boys in their armbands splash around having a splendid time. It does tire them out though, to the extent that both boys had a nap in the afternoon at the same time - a state otherwise known as nirvana to us fraught mummies.

We hadn't been swimming for a while as the hotel has been undergoing pretty extensive renovations which have now reached the changing areas of the pool. These are much needed and I'm looking forward to seeing the end result.

On the way home it struck us that there really is a lot of renovation and innovation going on in Tuzla at the moment. Squares in the centre of town which were car parks are becoming places to sit with cafes and benches. Dilapidated buildings are becoming brand new, smart attractive buildings. The saltwater lakes now have a series of waterfalls with pools in which you can sit. The old, tired zoo is becoming a cracking playground. The football stadium has got renovations going on all around it. There is talk of putting a part of the ring road underground, which would allow a huge green park to connect the centre of town to the Panonica Lakes and Slana Banja. I almost want to ask "Is Tuzla becoming "up and coming"? I may have to completely revise my perceptions of the city.

The citizens of Tuzla are proud of their mayor, who does appear to be doing a great job in improving the city. They are also proud of their non-nationalistic attitude and Tuzla is one of the few cities in Bosnia that doesn't elect nationalist politicians, one of the major reasons why Bosnia has got itself stuck in a bog of political fug (see article here for more on this if interested). I hope other Bosnians look at Tuzla for an example of what can happen when effective politicians are elected to power.

boring but important

There's a magazine in the UK, The Week, which is a neat summary of all the news, comments, editorials etc. in the UK press. One of their sections is called 'Boring, but Important' and I feel that accurately sums up the gist of this post.

Regular readers (hello Mum!) will know that I try to steer clear of the Bosnian political situation, but occasionally there is an important development that I feel I should point out. On Friday the international community's representative in Bosnia, The High Representative, resigned - leaving his job to become foreign minister in Slovakia.

The High Representative is probably the most powerful person in Bosnia (Brits may remember that Paddy Ashdown held the post for a couple of years a few years back). Unelected, he has the power to force the Bosnian politicians to do all sorts of things that they can't normally agree upon. Opinion is divided on whether having a High Representative is a good thing. Certainly, the office has been able to push through a number of laws that have been unpalatable to the nationalist politicians that dominate the political scene here. Others think that this permits the politicians to hide behind OHR; they have not needed to learn how to take difficult, potentially unpopular decisions.

OHR mandate was due to end in 2009, but many believe the current political stalemate (see Nov 16th post and Economist article here for more details) in Bosnia will mean it will have to be extended. It will be difficult to find anyone to take the job without knowing what their mandate will be. It looks as if the political impasse is unlikely to finish soon.

Human Rights

A reminder today, the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, that not all areas of Bosnia are as tolerant of difference as Tuzla. A mosque in the southern area of Bosnia was burned on the eve of the Bajram holiday as detailed in this Balkan Insight article. The comments following the article provide a real snapshot of the division that remains present in some parts of the region.

peace is the word and it takes a long time

Bosnia's war finished in 1995 and since then the international community implemented and monitored the peace through an agency known as OHR. OHR's mandate was due to be finished in 2007. The current tensions between the different groups has led to concerns about the possible reignition of the conflict and OHR's mandate has been extended through 2009, which will be some 14 years after the peace agreement was signed (interested parties can read more about this here).

I just mention this now as I listen to the debates over the globe's current conflict zones. Peace is difficult to attain and even more difficult to sustain. It also takes a long, long time.

Bosnia(n)

Those who read this blog in the hope of occasionally finding out more about Bosnia than the fact they have great coffee, it's pretty warm for the time of year and Bosnian is a really difficult language to learn might be interested to read this article by The Economist last week.

For the rest of you, I was told yesterday that Bosnian (or Croatian or Serbian or whatever you want to call it) is in fact the 3rd most difficult language in world. No idea if it is true but makes me feel better about speaking it so badly.

More articles on Bosnia

I know I said that I wasn't going to be political in this blog, but I found this article published last week in The Guardian and thought to provide a link to it here: If it is read together with the comments following it it provides quite a good idea of the different perspectives on Bosnia and what has been done in the years following the war, which might be interesting to some of this blog's followers.

Hague in Bosnia

This blog is intended to be about settling into a new culture, learning a new language with all the stresses and strains that this entails (particularly with 2 toddlers and dog in tow). It is not intended to be political or a commentary on the political situations in Bosnia in any way. However, for any of you who are interested there will be the odd link to an article about Bosnia and some of the challenges facing it. This is one, an article by The Spectator to accompany William Hague's trip to Sarajevo this week: curious parties should click here